Research Model
We use the most reliable data available: official voter files, data reports from state and local election officials, and American Community Survey demographic data. With these sources, we compare registration figures with population estimates in the smallest age ranges and geographic areas available. We use the 5-year ACS average.
We take the results and create data visualizations to allow you to compare rates across age groups and geographies.
Because facts don’t fix themselves, we’ve added buttons to allow you to take action right where you are. We update the data at regular intervals as we receive new data from states.
What are the limitations of our data and methods?
No data set or measurement estimate is perfect, and that is true for hyper-local data relating to narrow age groups. We discuss the principal limitations below to help users understand the selections we have made and their possible impacts on the visualization. For those who have suggestions of alternative data sources or how to improve our methods, please contact us.
Population vs. Citizenship
ACS provides age-based population estimates for local geographic regions. These estimates include noncitizens. ACS does not provide citizen-population data at the local level for these specific age ranges. As a result, locations with large populations of noncitizens are likely to appear lower in our estimates of voter registration rates than if we had a data source that was limited to citizens.
Age ranges, mobility, small jurisdictions
Population
ACS does not provide local population data for single age years, such as 18-year-olds. Instead, it provides age ranges. Because our main goals include highlighting the potential impacts of preregistration and high school voter registration policies and programs and tracking changes over time, we are most concerned with the number of people who turn 18 each year. For this reason, we estimate the number of youth turning 18-year-olds in a community by dividing the number of 15- to 17-year-olds from the ACS 5-year survey by three.
Registration
Where voter files provide the date of birth, estimates of 18-year-old registrants are based on those who are 18 as of the date of the relevant voter file. Some voter files provide a birth year, rather than date of birth. In these cases, we calculate the number of 18-year-olds by prorating the different birth years in which 18-year-olds are reflected. Because our focus is on high schools and the impacts of pre-18 registration policies and programs, we apply a formula designed to exclude colleges, military bases, and other residences that are likely to house 18-year-olds who have relocated after high school. Registration rates for 18-year-olds and the number of 18-year-olds registered can vary significantly over time. The effect can be especially pronounced in jurisdictions with small populations. We cap reported registration rates at 90% to account for these significant swings. We also omit registration rates for counties with populations below 10,000. Trends and changes over time can be more illuminating than any single snapshot.
Local boundaries vs. School attendance
The estimates we provide relate to those who reside within the geographic boundaries of a local community. They do not describe students who necessarily attend high schools in the same.
School districts, independent schools, and other communities that wish to explore information about their enrollees can contact us to explore options.
The Civics Center is on a mission to make voter registration part of every high school in America
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